Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation (2020 Presidential transition)

Book 3 - Organization Overview
Entire 2020 DOE Transition book As of October 2020

The Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation was established by Congress in recognition of a gap in NNSA’s capacity to independently determine the costs of projects and adequately budget for them, leading to poor mission performance.

CEPE is instrumental to meeting DOE’s mission to ensure America’s national security by accurately estimating costs, assessing alternatives, and evaluating NNSA’s program performance, thereby ensuring responsible expenditure of taxpayer dollars and garnering credibility with Congress.

Mission Statement

The Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation provides the administrator with independent, data-driven analysis on all aspects of the Nuclear Security Enterprise, leading to better mission planning and performance. Accurately estimating costs, assessing alternatives, and evaluating NNSA’s program performance are vital to national security and the responsible expenditure of taxpayer dollars.

Our goal is to increase mission success through providing independent analysis to inform better planning, risk mitigation strategies, and program execution.

Budget

Fiscal Year	Budget
FY 2019 enacted	$2,600,000
FY 2020 enacted	$2,600,000
FY 2021 requested	$2,200,000

Human Resources

FY 2020 authorized full-time equivalents (FTEs): 19

History

The FY 2014 NDAA amended the NNSA Act to establish CEPE as the primary advisor to the Secretary and NNSA Administrator on cost estimating and program evaluation in the NNSA. The Director, CEPE is a direct report to the NNSA Administrator

Functions

Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs) for nuclear warhead life extension programs (LEPs) and construction projects.

Cost estimating data collection and sharing.

Develop & manage submittal of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) for LEPs.

As part of the annual Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Evaluation (PPBE) process, analyze the planning phase, advise on programmatic & fiscal guidance, and manage the annual program review.

Review the Future Years Nuclear Security Program to ensure it is accurate & thorough.

Independent review and & policy/procedures for Analysis of Alternatives (AoAs).

Review of Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs).

Review cost and schedule baselines for projects/ programs and manage Congressional notification of overruns.

Recent Organization Accomplishments

In response to the FY 2019 NDAA granting CEPE authority to conduct ICEs on projects under DOE 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, four ICEs on capital asset construction projects were completed in FY 2020 (Surplus Plutonium Disposition; Digital Infrastructure Capacity Expansion; High Explosive Synthesis, Formulation, and Production; and U1A Complex Enhancement Project).

CEPE completed independent reviews of the AoA for three projects (LANL Electrical Power Capacity Upgrades; High Explosive Synthesis & Formulation Plant; and Power Sources Capability) and is reviewing four projects (Domestic Uranium Enrichment, Combined Radiation Environments for Survivability Testing, Digital Infrastructure Capabilities Enhancement, and Energetic Materials Characterization).

During the FY22-26 Program Review, CEPE conducted an enterprise-wide review of unconstrained FTE requirements to meet NNSA’s current program of record.

Leadership Challenges

Growing staff to meet increased requirements.
ICEs for construction projects.
Increased pace & number of LEPs.
In-depth review of AoAs to assess reasonableness of cost estimates, schedule analysis, and overall analytical quality, technical soundness, and adherence to established process and policies.

Critical Events and Action Items

CEPE completed ICEs for the B61-12 LEP and the W88 Alt 370 prior to their Phase 6.5 entry by September 30, 2020. These ICEs will receive Congressional and public attention in early 2021.

ICEs on pit production at Los Alamos and Savannah River are ongoing and will be completed by the end of calendar year 2020. These ICEs will receive Congressional and public attention in early 2021.

The FY 2019 NDAA requires CEPE to review the plan to produce plutonium pits at LANL. CEPE plans to complete this review by September 30, 2020. This review will be sent to Congress by late 2020.^[1]