North American Energy Resilience Model (2020 Transition)

Book 2 - Issue Papers
Entire 2020 DOE Transition book As of October 2020

The North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) will provide national-scale energy planning and real-time situational awareness capabilities based on rigorous and quantitative assessment. This effort develops a first-of-its-kind understanding of complex energy delivery interdependencies across multiple infrastructure sectors, while considering a range of large-scale emerging threats, both natural and man-made. By enhancing federal-level intelligence of the energy sector, NAERM can improve the Department of Energy’s (DOE) response to energy sector incidents, sponsor strategic level exercises, and gain insight in the planning and operational factors required for a reliable and resilient energy future.

Summary

The reliability of the U.S. electric power system is critical to the Nation’s economic vitality, security, and well-being. Today, that reliability is being challenged, as the infrastructure ages and as incidences of severe weather, coordinated cyber-physical attacks, and other threats to the system increase. The electric system must not only be reliable, but also resilient.

Our Nation’s bulk-power system will benefit from quantitative modeling tools that will fully integrate and analyze the interdependencies among energy infrastructure such as natural gas pipelines, pump stations, and river levels and flows. Investment in the tools, models, and expertise across infrastructure sectors provide insight gained from simulations and exercises which can enhance preparedness for natural and adversarial events. NAERM is a comprehensive resilience modeling system for North America’s energy sector infrastructure, and is being developed from a collaboration between DOE, its National Laboratories, and industry. It is advancing capabilities to model, simulate, and assess the behavior of electric power systems, as well as associated dependencies on natural gas and other critical infrastructures. The modeling approach enables prediction of the impact of a range of large-scale, emerging threats; evaluation and identification of effective mitigation strategies; and coordinated planning, system restoration, and recovery (Figure1).

Status

DOE released its high-level strategy for NAERM in July 2019.³ The main phases of NAERM address:

• Phase 1: Long-term energy planning using static, offline data;
• Phase 2: National-level situational awareness using real-time streaming data for both infrastructure and threats; and
• Analytic and decision support capabilities to anticipate threats and mitigate their impacts (Figure 2).

In FY2020, NAERM research and development was divided into three sub-areas to expand model features and deliver initial NAERM platform capabilities. As such the NAERM team has thus far:

Real-Time Situational Awareness

Developed an initial tool for visualizing and analyzing layers of infrastructure data, forecasts of load and renewable resources, and graph-based interdependency analytics.

Infrastructure Modeling

Developed a modeling system to perform advanced co-simulation of energy-related infrastructure, leveraging the DOE/Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation (HELICS) software. Capabilities include tools for performing visualization, multi-domain contingency analysis, and initial version for integrated Distributed Energy Resource models.

Software Architecture

Built a secure environment to host and orchestrate the development and deployment of the complex, multi-component NAERM software system.

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Figure 1

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Figure 2

DOE Leadership and Coordination

While NAERM is managed by the Office of Electricity (OE), it is a Departmental level effort, drawing on the expertise and capabilities of multiple offices and National Laboratories (including Argonne, Idaho, Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, National Renewable Energy Lab, Oak Ridge, Pacific Northwest, and Sandia National Labs). This allows for the leveraging of DOE research investments under cross-cutting activities such as the Grid Modernization Initiative (GMI) and GMLC.

A critical foundation for NAERM is understanding bulk-power system entity capabilities and gaining access to system models, operational data, and domain expertise. This requires extensive engagement with industry experts. The benefit back to these entities is expected to be assessing the resilience implications of energy planning decisions on associated infrastructure, such as the optimal placement of energy storage.

NAERM will cultivate a real-time situational awareness and analysis capability for emergency events for optimal operations and recovery, so that Federal agencies can quickly and effectively prepare and respond. This includes providing recommendations in coordination with State and local governments, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the National Guard. These capabilities will also be leveraged by DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the Department of Defense (DoD), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in support of their national security missions.

Major Decisions/Events

• OE leadership has previously discussed the value of NAERM with other Federal agencies and industry stakeholders. While no formal partnerships are in place, regional planning entities and other stakeholders have expressed interest in adapting modeling advancements for their individual use, e.g. analyzing multi-domain interdependencies. Determination must be made on next steps to formalize stakeholder agreements, particularly, how to effectively transfer core modeling advancements to industry.
• In September 2020, OE briefed the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU) on OE’s proposed reorganization including a description of how NAERM efforts would be embedded in its new program office. By October 23, 2020, OE will have met the NTEU obligation and will move to finalize the reorganization.