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International Energy Agency: Difference between revisions
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The IEA has been criticised for systematically underestimating the role of [[renewable energy]] sources in future energy systems such as [[photovoltaics]] and their cost reductions.<ref>[[Felix Creutzig]] et al.: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change. In: Nature Energy 2, 2017, [[doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.140]]</ref><ref>Auke Hoekstra et al.: Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation. In: [[Complexity]]. 2017, [[doi:10.1155/2017/1967645]]</ref><ref>Konrad Mertens: ''Photovoltaik: Lehrbuch zu Grundlagen, Technologie und Praxis''. 4. edition, Hanser, (Munich) p. 340.</ref> | The IEA has been criticised for systematically underestimating the role of [[renewable energy]] sources in future energy systems such as [[photovoltaics]] and their cost reductions.<ref>[[Felix Creutzig]] et al.: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change. In: Nature Energy 2, 2017, [[doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.140]]</ref><ref>Auke Hoekstra et al.: Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation. In: [[Complexity]]. 2017, [[doi:10.1155/2017/1967645]]</ref><ref>Konrad Mertens: ''Photovoltaik: Lehrbuch zu Grundlagen, Technologie und Praxis''. 4. edition, Hanser, (Munich) p. 340.</ref> | ||
In the past, the IEA has been criticized by [[environmental group]]s for underplaying the role of [[renewable energy]] technologies in favor of [[Nuclear power|nuclear]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nuclear Institute Login – Register |url=http://www.nuclearinst.com/International}}</ref> and [[fossil fuel]]s.<ref name="henning">{{cite web |author=Henning Gloystein |date=2011-11-23 |title=Renewable energy becoming cost competitive, IEA says |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-iea-renewables-idUSTRE7AM0OV20111123 |work= | In the past, the IEA has been criticized by [[environmental group]]s for underplaying the role of [[renewable energy]] technologies in favor of [[Nuclear power|nuclear]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nuclear Institute Login – Register |url=http://www.nuclearinst.com/International}}</ref> and [[fossil fuel]]s.<ref name="henning">{{cite web |author=Henning Gloystein |date=2011-11-23 |title=Renewable energy becoming cost competitive, IEA says |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-iea-renewables-idUSTRE7AM0OV20111123 |work=Reuters}}</ref> In 2009, [[Guy Pearse]] stated that the IEA has consistently underestimated the potential for renewable energy alternatives.<ref>Guy Pearse (2009). "Quarry Vision", ''[[Quarterly Essay]]'', Issue 33, p. 93.</ref> | ||
The [[Energy Watch Group]] (EWG), a coalition of scientists and politicians which analyses official [[energy industry]] predictions, claims that the IEA has had an institutional bias towards traditional energy sources and has been using "misleading data" to undermine the case for renewable energy, such as [[wind]] and solar. A 2008 EWG report compares IEA projections about the growth of [[wind power]] capacity and finds that it has consistently underestimated the amount of energy the [[wind power industry]] can deliver.<ref name="ie">{{Cite web |date=12 January 2009 |title=IEA accused of "deliberately" undermining global renewables industry |url=http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2233776/iea-accused-deliberately}}</ref> | The [[Energy Watch Group]] (EWG), a coalition of scientists and politicians which analyses official [[energy industry]] predictions, claims that the IEA has had an institutional bias towards traditional energy sources and has been using "misleading data" to undermine the case for renewable energy, such as [[wind]] and solar. A 2008 EWG report compares IEA projections about the growth of [[wind power]] capacity and finds that it has consistently underestimated the amount of energy the [[wind power industry]] can deliver.<ref name="ie">{{Cite web |date=12 January 2009 |title=IEA accused of "deliberately" undermining global renewables industry |url=http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2233776/iea-accused-deliberately}}</ref> | ||
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=== Accuracy of forecasting === | === Accuracy of forecasting === | ||
Ahead of the launch of the ''2009 [[World Energy Outlook]]'', the British daily newspaper '' | Ahead of the launch of the ''2009 [[World Energy Outlook]]'', the British daily newspaper ''The Guardian'', referring to an unidentified senior IEA official, alleged that the agency was deliberately downplaying the risk of [[peak oil]] under pressures from the US. According to a second unidentified former senior IEA official it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" and that the world has already entered the "peak oil zone".<ref name="guardian1">{{cite news |author=Terry Macalister |date=2009-11-09 |title=Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower |newspaper=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency |access-date=2010-01-23}}</ref> | ||
''The Guardian'' also referred to a team of scientists from [[Uppsala University]] in Sweden who studied the 2008 World Energy Outlook and concluded the forecasts of the IEA were unattainable. According to their peer-reviewed report, oil production in 2030 would not exceed {{convert|75|Moilbbl/d}} while the IEA forecasts a production of {{convert|105|Moilbbl/d}}. The lead author of the report, Kjell Aleklett, has claimed that IEA's reports are "political documents".<ref name="guardian2">{{cite news |author=Terry Macalister |date=2009-11-12 |title=Oil: future world shortages are being drastically underplayed, say experts |newspaper= | ''The Guardian'' also referred to a team of scientists from [[Uppsala University]] in Sweden who studied the 2008 World Energy Outlook and concluded the forecasts of the IEA were unattainable. According to their peer-reviewed report, oil production in 2030 would not exceed {{convert|75|Moilbbl/d}} while the IEA forecasts a production of {{convert|105|Moilbbl/d}}. The lead author of the report, Kjell Aleklett, has claimed that IEA's reports are "political documents".<ref name="guardian2">{{cite news |author=Terry Macalister |date=2009-11-12 |title=Oil: future world shortages are being drastically underplayed, say experts |newspaper=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/nov/12/oil-shortage-uppsala-aleklett |access-date=2010-01-23}}</ref> Other research from the same group has thoroughly reviewed oil projections done by the IEA World Energy Outlook.<ref name="Wachtmeister2018">{{cite journal |last1=Wachtmeister |first1=Henrik |last2=Henke |first2=Petter |last3=Höök |first3=Mikael |date=2018 |title=Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty |journal=Applied Energy |volume=220 |pages=138–153 |doi=10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.013 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2018ApEn..220..138W }}</ref> | ||
The anticorruption [[NGO]] [[Global Witness]] wrote in its report ''Heads in the Sand'' that "Global Witness' analysis demonstrates that the Agency continues to retain an overly-optimistic, and therefore misleading, view about potential future oil production." According to Global Witness, "the Agency's over-confidence, despite credible data, external analysis and underlying fundamentals all strongly suggesting a more precautionary approach, has had a disastrous global impact."<ref name="heads">{{cite journal |date=October 2009 |title=Heads in the Sand: Governments Ignore the Oil Supply Crunch and Threaten the Climate |url=http://www.globalwitness.org/library/heads-sand-governments-ignore-oil-supply-crunch-and-threaten-climate |format=PDF |journal=[[Global Witness]] |pages=45–47 |access-date=2011-02-19}}</ref> | The anticorruption [[NGO]] [[Global Witness]] wrote in its report ''Heads in the Sand'' that "Global Witness' analysis demonstrates that the Agency continues to retain an overly-optimistic, and therefore misleading, view about potential future oil production." According to Global Witness, "the Agency's over-confidence, despite credible data, external analysis and underlying fundamentals all strongly suggesting a more precautionary approach, has had a disastrous global impact."<ref name="heads">{{cite journal |date=October 2009 |title=Heads in the Sand: Governments Ignore the Oil Supply Crunch and Threaten the Climate |url=http://www.globalwitness.org/library/heads-sand-governments-ignore-oil-supply-crunch-and-threaten-climate |format=PDF |journal=[[Global Witness]] |pages=45–47 |access-date=2011-02-19}}</ref> | ||