View source for National Intelligence Council

{{Short description|Government body responsible for strategic intelligence assessments}}
{{Infobox government agency
| name = National Intelligence Council
| seal =
| logo = Logo of the National Intelligence Council.gif
| formed = {{start date and age|1979}}
| jurisdiction = [[United States Government]]
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| parent_agency = [[Office of the Director of National Intelligence]]
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The '''National Intelligence Council''' ('''NIC'''), established in 1979 and reporting to the [[United States Director of National Intelligence|Director of National Intelligence]], bridges the [[United States Intelligence Community]] (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in [[academia]] and the [[private sector]]. NIC documents and reports which are used by [[policymaker]]s,  include the [[National Intelligence Estimate]] and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy.

One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and [[Inauguration Day]]. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years.  The Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the Intelligence Community. In 1997, the Office of the NIC Director released the first Global Trends report, "Global Trends 2010",<ref name="NIC_Trends_2010"/> and in March 2021, their most recent report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World".<ref name="NIC_Trends_2040"/>

== Overview ==
When [[Walter Bedell Smith]] became [[Director of Central Intelligence]] in 1950, he established '''Office of National Estimates''' (ONE), whose sole purpose was to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). There were two components in ONE, a staff which drafted the estimates and a senior body, the Board of National Estimates, which reviewed the estimates, coordinated the judgments with other agencies, and negotiated over their final form.<ref>[https://irp.fas.org/cia/ciahist.htm ENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY]</ref> The ONE consisted of a group of intelligence professionals, complemented by retired military officers, diplomats, and academics. Though ONE, which reported to the DCI, was officially outside of the CIA, many ONE members came from the agency.<ref>[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/breaking-one-evolution-national-intelligence-estimate-production-cycle-johnson-carter Breaking the ONE: The Evolution of the National Intelligence Estimate Production Cycle from Johnson to Carter]</ref>

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which was established in 1979, also reports to the [[United States Director of National Intelligence|Director of National Intelligence]]. The NIC bridges the [[United States Intelligence Community]] (IC) with policy makers in the United States, according to a February 2, 2007 DNI report.<ref name="DNI_PR_20070321">{{cite press release |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Press%20Releases/2007%20Press%20Releases/20070202_release.pdf |title=Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead: Unclassified Key Judgments] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070302125700/http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf |date=March 2, 2007 |archive-date=March 2, 2007 |access-date=April 16, 2021}}</ref>

The report combines "traditional national security challenges" with "social trends that have clear security implications".<ref name="NYT_Barnes_20210408"/>

In 2011, NIC members included "18 senior analysts and national security policy experts", who were appointed by the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC support the work of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the [[United States National Security Council|National Security Council]]. Congress may at times request that the NIC prepare "specific estimates and other analytical products" to inform "consideration of legislation", according to a [[Congressional Research Service]] (CRS) report.<ref name="CRS_Best_20111227">{{cite report |series=The National Intelligence Council (NIC) |title=Issues and Options for Congress |first=Richard A. |last=Best |date=December 27, 2011 |access-date=April 16, 2021 |url=https://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R40505.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210211070625/https://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R40505.pdf |archive-date=February 11, 2021|pages=16 |publisher=[[Congressional Research Service]] (CRS)}}</ref> The NIC also "provides the U.S. intelligence community's best judgments on crucial international issues".<ref name="CRS_Best_20111227"/>

The NIC has a Chairman and Vice Chairman, as well as a Vice Chairman for Evaluation, a Director of Strategic Plans and Outreach, a Director of Analysis and Production Staff, a Special Adviser, and National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for different subject matters including [[Africa]], [[East Asia]], [[Europe]], [[Latin America]], [[Near East]], [[South Asia]], [[Russia]] and [[Eurasia]]. Issues include [[economics]] and [[list of global issues|global issues]], science and technology, intelligence assurance, military issues, [[Transnationalism|transnational]] threats, warning, [[weapons of mass destruction]] and [[nuclear proliferation]], and cyber.

The first director of the NIC was [[Richard Lehman (CIA officer)|Richard Lehman]], (1979–1981) who served during the tenure of then President [[Jimmy Carter]].

==Global Trends reports==
One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day and [[Inauguration Day]]. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years.  While the Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the intelligence community, it is proscribed by law to not provide any policy recommendations.<ref name="NYT_20210415"/> 

The goal of the report is to examine "longer-term impacts" of "current changes" on the "world of the future"—twenty years ahead.<ref name="NYT_20210415"/> 

The first Global Trends report was released in 1997,<ref name="NIC_Trends_2010">{{cite report |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320162430/https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2010 |archive-date=March 20, 2021 |url=https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2010 |title=NIC Global Trends 2010 |date=1997 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}</ref> and the most recent, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World'" was released in March 2021.<ref name="NIC_Trends_2040">{{cite report |url=https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414042753/https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-media-and-downloads |archive-date=April 14, 2021|title=NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World |date=March 2021 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}</ref> The NIC's Strategic Futures Group, under the direction of Maria Langan-Riekhof, led the publication of the "Global Trends 2040" report, working with 18 organizations that make up the United States Intelligence Community. This includes the [[United States National Security Agency|National Security Agency]] and [[Central Intelligence Agency|C.I.A]].<ref name="NYT_20210415"/>

Previous reports include "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress" in January 2017,<ref name="NIC_Trends_2035"> {{cite report  |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf  |title=NIC Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress |date=January 2017  |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414040233/https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |archive-date=April 14, 2021 |isbn=978-0-16-093614-2 |pages=226}}</ref> "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" in 2012,<ref name="NIC_Trends_2030">{{cite report   |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414040233/https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |archive-date=April 14, 2021|url=https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds |date=2012 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}</ref>  "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future", "Global Trends 2010" in 1997,<ref name="NIC_Trends_2010"/> and "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" in December 2000.<ref name="NIC_Trends_2015">{{cite report |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320125654/https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf |archive-date=March 20, 2021 |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Non-government Experts |date=December 2000 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}</ref>

=== Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future ===
In December 2004, the NIC published a report on its 2020 Project, titled "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future".<ref>{{Cite web |date=December 2004 |title=Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Global%20Future%202020%20Project.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220606032914/https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Global%20Future%202020%20Project.pdf |archive-date=2022-06-06 |access-date=2022-07-10 |website=[[Office of the Director of National Intelligence]]}}</ref> Developed in consultation with "non-governmental experts around the world," the report examined possible scenarios evolving out of global trends shaping international politics and economics. Particular emphasis was put on the increasing role of [[China]] and [[India]] on the global stage, as well as the evolution of [[radical Islamic terrorism]] worldwide.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Rose |first=Gideon |date=May–June 2005 |title=Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project |language=en-US |url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2005-05-01/mapping-global-future-report-national-intelligence-councils-2020 |access-date=2022-07-10 |issn=0015-7120}}</ref> Considerations are made for the potential proliferation of [[Weapon of mass destruction|weapons of mass destruction]] (WMD) and the use of [[Biological weaponry|biological]] and [[chemical weapon]]s in future terrorist attacks.

===Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress===
At the beginning the [[First presidency of Donald Trump|Presidency of Donald Trump]] in January 2017, the [[Presidency of Barack Obama|Obama administration]] released its report titled, "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress", which "highlighted the risk of a pandemic and the vast economic disruption it could cause."<ref name="NYT_Barnes_20210408">{{Cite news| issn = 0362-4331| last = Barnes| first = Julian E.| title = U.S. Intelligence Report Warns of Global Consequences of Social Fragmentation| work = The New York Times| access-date = April 17, 2021| date = April 8, 2021| url = https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/us/politics/intelligence-global-trends-report-pandemic.html}}</ref><ref name="NIC_Trends_2035"/>

===Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World===
In their April 15, 2021 article about the March 2021 report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World", the ''New York Times'' editorial board cited experts in Washington saying "they do not recall a gloomier" NIC Global Trends report.<ref name="NYT_20210415">{{Cite news| issn = 0362-4331| author = The editorial board| title = Why Spy Agencies Say the Future Is Bleak| work = The New York Times| access-date = April 16, 2021| date = April 15, 2021| url = https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/opinion/global-trends-intelligence-report.html}}</ref> The ''Times''  listed headings such as "Competitive Coexistence", "Separate Silos", "Tragedy and Mobilization", and "A World Adrift" and questions if we will heed the report's warnings "at a time when states and societies are turning inward and political discourse has become poisonous."<ref name="NYT_20210415"/> According to the report, "Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups."<ref name="NIC_Trends_2040"/>{{rp|12}}<ref name="NYT_Barnes_20210408"/>

==List of chairs==

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Name
! Term start
! Term end
! President
|-
|[[Richard Lehman (CIA officer)|Richard Lehman]]
|1979
|1981
|[[Jimmy Carter]]
|-
|[[Henry Rowen]]
|July 8, 1981
|September 1983
|rowspan=4 |[[Ronald Reagan]]
|-
|[[Robert Gates]]
|September 1983
|April 18, 1986
|-
|[[Frank Horton III]]
|September 1986
|September 1987
|-
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |[[Fritz Ermarth]]
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |1988
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |January 20, 1993
|-
|[[George H. W. Bush]]
|-
|[[Joseph Nye]]
|February 20, 1993
|September 15, 1994
|rowspan=4 |[[Bill Clinton]]
|-
|[[Christine Williams (intelligence)|Christine Williams]]
|September 15, 1994
|June 1, 1995
|-
|[[Richard N. Cooper]]
|June 1, 1995
|January 1997
|-
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |[[John C. Gannon]]
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |July 22, 1997
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |June 2001
|-
|rowspan=5 |[[George W. Bush]]
|-
|[[John L. Helgerson]]
|August 3, 2001
|April 26, 2002
|-
|[[Robert Hutchings]]
|February 2003
|January 2005
|-
|[[Thomas Fingar]]
|June 13, 2005
|December 1, 2008
|-
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |[[Peter Lavoy]]
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |December 1, 2008
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |July 6, 2009
|-
|rowspan=4 |[[Barack Obama]]
|-
|[[Christopher A. Kojm|Chris Kojm]]
|July 6, 2009
|July 2014
|-
|[[Gregory F. Treverton|Greg Treverton]]
|September 8, 2014
|October 28, 2016
|-
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |[[Amy McAuliffe]]
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |October 28, 2016
|rowspan=2 style="padding-top: 1em; padding-bottom: 1em;" |October 27, 2019
|-
|rowspan=2 |[[Donald Trump]]
|-
|Neil Wiley
|October 28, 2019
|January 21, 2021
|-
|[[Avril Haines]] (incumbent)
|January 21, 2021
|Present
|[[Joe Biden]]
|-
|}

== References ==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
{{Commons category}}
* [https://www.odni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-who-we-are NIC official website]
* [https://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R40505.pdf The National Intelligence Council (NIC): Issues and Options for Congress]
* {{Librivox author |id=15746}}

=== Global Trends reports ===
* 1997 {{cite report |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320162430/https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2010 |archive-date=March 20, 2021|url=https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2010 |title=NIC Global Trends 2010 |date=1997 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}
* 2000 {{cite report  |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320125654/https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf |archive-date=March 20, 2021 |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Non-government Experts |date=December 2000 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021 |publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}
* 2004 {{cite report  |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210320125654/https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf |archive-date=March 20, 2021|url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Global%20Future%202020%20Project.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2020: Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future |date=2004 |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}}
* 2008 {{cite report |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World] |date=2008}}
* 2012 {{cite report  |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414040233/https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |archive-date=April 14, 2021|title=NIC Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds |date=2012 |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council}} [https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2030 NIC Global Trends 2030]
* 2017 {{cite report  |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf  |title=NIC Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress |date=January 2017  |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414040233/https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Full-Report.pdf |archive-date=April 14, 2021 |isbn=978-0-16-093614-2 |pages=226}}
* 2021 {{cite report |url=https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/GT2040/GlobalTrends_2040_for_web1.pdf |title=NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World |date=March 2021 |series=NIC Global Trends |access-date=April 16, 2021|publisher=Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Council |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210414042753/https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/GT2040/GlobalTrends_2040_for_web1.pdf |archive-date=April 14, 2021|pages=156}}

{{Intelligence agencies of USA}}
{{Authority control}}

[[Category:Futures studies organizations]]
[[Category:Government agencies established in 1979]]
[[Category:Intelligence analysis agencies]]
[[Category:United States intelligence agencies]]